Today we have a Stat-tastic post for you as I take a look at the Darkblades game against the Rats from Saturday. I love my stats and Blood Bowl games like this are ripe for number crunching and probability analysis.
A very dramatic game for both me and Bull as we saw the first deaths of the season; Bull losing his lineman Boilrost the Contagious and the Darkblades lost the TD scoring machine Adin Heartrender.
The match report describes the Darkblades 2-1 win, but I want to concentrate on two key Rat moves that almost spelled disaster for the Darkblades.
The first incident was the gut-wrenching death of Adin Heartrender. After a Dark Elf blitz, the Skaven Thrower has spilled the ball and Heartrender grabbed it and made off towards the endzone unchallenged. I thought I had done enough, but Bull pulled off a stunning move that not only prevented the score, but also finished off the Darkblade hero.
As you can see from the diagram above, the prone Gutter Runner to the left was well within range of the ball carrier, but still had to make a dodge roll to get there. I wasn't surprised at all when he rolled up in Heartrender's face.
The staggering part of the play was the Gutter Runner on the right of the field. I clearly hadn't seen the possibility, more concerned with the prone Lineman who was much closer. This move involved three more dodge rolls (the first came with a minus modifier for dodging into a tackle zone), then two 'Go For It' rolls in order to get to Heartrender and make the hit. Bull then had to achieve a Defender Down or Defender Stumbles result on a single Block dice roll. After some quick calculating, the chances of achieving the above move come in at approximately 1 in 23. A long shot but worth a go to save the TD. I hasten to add that Bull got there without a single re-roll. Kudos.
Add into this situation what eventually transpired – Heartrender's death and the dice rolls to achieve that – and things get a lot more extreme. Having decked the ball carrier, Bull had to beat his armour, cause a Casualty, roll Dead and I had to fail my Apothecary roll. The combined probability of the Skaven move resulting in the Blitzer's death equates to approximately 1 in 5805!!
I wouldn't have been so offended had it been the Clawed Stormvermin who'd made the kill, but to die at the hands of a Strength 2 Gutter Runner… ^^
The second incident under the spotlight is the Skaven touchdown, which came at a time when the Dark Elves were in the ascendency and should have killed off the game. My blitzer had just knocked down a Gutter Runner, with support from a lineman, broken the Skaven cage and exposed the ball carrier. It was all looking very positive.
The diagram again shows what transpired. My bad positioning left both the ball carrier and the Gutter Runner downfield a window of opportunity, Bull making no mistakes in getting the score. The move still involved a couple of dodge rolls, a long bomb pass and a rain-soaked catch. The probability of getting the Touchdown under these circumstances was a relatively positive 1 in 9. However, given that Bull rolled a double six for the Throw and subsequent Catch, the probability of receiving the result he did drop to 1 in 52.
Had I read the situation a little better I could have made his chances a lot more unrealistic. By moving two of my Linemen a single square each in my previous turn I could have force 4 additional dodge rolls to be made, 3 of them with a negative modifier. This tweaks the probability of Bull scoring from 1 in 9 to 1 in 35. Alternatively, if Bull were to roll double six as he did, the probability goes from 1 in 52 to 1 in 210 with the additional dodges.
I can't remember if my two Lineman had the spare moves available to get to the revised positions, but it goes to show the difference a single square can make.
I'll leave you with the post-game Darkblade roster. As you can see we're down a Blitzer, which is quite an issue, although our previously injured lineman, Laric Fellheart, has returned.
The outstanding Torel Dragonclaw managed to roll a double for his skill up. I've given him Guard for the moment but am pondering the pros and cons of this versus Mighty Blow. Similarly, our TD scoring lineman, Atal Starslayer, was awarded MVP in the end – for a crucial catch – and has been given Kick, though I am still considering Block instead.
We now have two players on 8 SPP plus another couple on 4 and 2. This should see more skill ups in the next game if things go well. I also managed to increase the fan factor after the match and bag 100k gold after all the dice rolls and bonuses were handed out.
This injection of cash could see me instantly replace my lost Blitzer, or hold out for a Witch Elf and play the next game with two journeymen again.
|* final Rat SPPs not collated|
With rumours of new teams signing up to play, things could start to get very interesting indeed during March and April.